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Tensions Mount in Burundi as Elections Approach (Part II)

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As Burundi approaches elections this year, there are underlying pressures that leave little room for hope of reform. Violence and political tension plague the nation, depriving citizens of certain basic rights. This article takes an in depth look at political parties, previous elections and prospects for the 2015 elections in Burundi.  It is the second to a two part series. Please find the first part here.

There has been a campaign by the CNDD-FDD to suppress the activities of the opposition parties which might possibly contest the elections taking place from May to September this year.  The party with the only significant following is the FNL.  Three others could contest National Assembly and Senate seats, but would not be likely to show well in the Presidential elections. They are the Movement for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD), National Council for Defense of Democracy (CNDD) and Union for Peace and Development (UPD).

In 2010, the FNL won 14% of the communal election seats, prior to its decision to boycott the remaining elections. The FNL leader, Agathon Rwasa, along with MSD leader Alexis Sinduhije and CNDD leader Léonard Nyangoma, have spent the bulk of the last four years in exile, either under pressure by the government or by choice due to security concerns.  The FNL's Agathon Rwasa returned in August 2013 after a UN intervention, but his status is tenuous as he had been charged with involvement in the 2004 massacre of Congolese refugees in Gatumba.  Meanwhile, the FNL has split between the external faction, still headed by Rwasa, and an internal faction recognized by the government and declared the official opposition with its new leader, Emmanuel Miburo.  In 2013, the internal FNL leadership formally ejected Rwasa from its ranks, stripping him of his FNL membership.

UPD Zigamibanga has also fractured. The ruling party has played a role in triggering the fracturing of these opposition political parties through a combination of pressure and blandishments, and sometimes direct victimization.   For instance, it suspended the Movement for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD) between March and August 2014, after clashes with police which resulted in the sentencing of 21 MSD members to life in prison for "insurrection."  Another ten were sentenced to ten years and 14 were sentenced to five years.  The government has also limited the campaign periods for opposition parties to just two weeks before each election at the local, parliamentary, and presidential levels, and has broken up party rallies around the country.

The old-line parties which negotiated the Arusha Accords, the Union for National Progress (UPRONA) and a faction of the Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU), did contest the legislative elections in 2010 and now constitute the parliamentary opposition. FRODEBU has broken into two factions, Sahwanya and Nyakuri.   Nyakuri-FRODEBU has aligned itself with the ruling party, thus removing itself from "opposition" ranks, but does not seem to have gained much by so doing.  UPRONA has a serious internal division and neither one seem set to compete favorably against CNDD-FDD in the coming elections.

One issue that both opposition parties and the international community have focused on is whether President Nkurunziza has the legal right to run for a third five-year term.  The 2005 constitution and Arusha Peace Accords from 2000 specified that a president is allowed only two terms.  In fact, Article 7 of the Arusha Accord states that no president can serve more than two terms, but it says further that the first "post-transitional president," i.e. the one elected in 2005, will be indirectly elected by the National Assembly and Senate with a 2/3 majority.  Subsequent elections will result in a president elected by "universal suffrage."  Nkurunziza and his party point out that the 2005 elections resulted in a CNDD-FDD majority in parliament which then elected Nkurunziza as president and that the 2010 elections were the first in which all eligible voters cast their votes directly for the president.  The president, according to this logic, has served only one five-year term since being elected in 2010 by universal suffrage and is eligible for one more.    Almost all opposition party leaders, academics, and human rights organizations in Burundi have protested his determination to run again and the U.S. Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Russ Feingold, has also questioned the legality of a third term.   It is, obviously, an issue open to interpretation.

In the midst of all this violence, tension and confusion, the plans for the election are moving forward.  In the last week, the United Nations launched its elections observation mission, called MENUB.  The chief of MENUB stated that "Elections are being held at a crucial time in the history of Burundi," and "It is our duty to ensure they happen in a transparent and peaceful manner," according to the Agence France Press.  This is in the wake of the removal of the UN mission to Burundi, BNUB, on December 31 under long standing pressure from the Burundian government.  Predictably, the Burundi government has immediately expressed reservations about MENUB.  It boycotted the official launch and a government spokesman was quoted by AFP as saying: "We asked for an election observation mission, not for a validation of the elections. For the government, the validation of elections is the prerogative of CENI (the National Independent Elections Commission), it's very clear, there cannot be any debate about that."

Only time will tell if the government accepts MENUB or other outside observation missions and allows these elections to go forward in a manner that will be acceptable to the international community.  At present, all the signals dictate against that being the case.

Steve McDonald is a Public Policy Scholar and Former Director of the Africa Program at the Wilson Center.

Photo courtesy of United Nations Photo via Flickr Commons

Please note that this is the second of articles in a two part series. Find the first part here. 

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Africa Program

The Africa Program works to address the most critical issues facing Africa and US-Africa relations, build mutually beneficial US-Africa relations, and enhance knowledge and understanding about Africa in the United States. The Program achieves its mission through in-depth research and analyses, public discussion, working groups, and briefings that bring together policymakers, practitioners, and subject matter experts to analyze and offer practical options for tackling key challenges in Africa and in US-Africa relations.    Read more