An Analysis of the Sustainability of Peace Agreements in West Africa: The Cases of Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, and Liberia

[caption id="attachment_12141" align="aligncenter" width="600"] A building damaged by the 2010-2011 conflict in Cote d'Ivoire. Photo by Michael Fleshman, via Flickr. Creative Commons.[/caption]

This policy brief summarizes some of the results of a study based on empirical data carried out in Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, and Liberia with financial support from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC).

Careful interrogation of the key sustainability factors of peace agreements through the recent experiences of countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, and Liberia is crucial to effectively managing those agreements. Given the very transient nature of the various peace agreements signed following military-political conflicts in Africa, important questions arise:

(I) What is the relationship between the factors of sustainability regulations and taking into account the degree of inclusion?

(II) What are the determinants of the sustainability of peace agreements?

(III) What are the breaking point and the parameters of the resilience of the peace agreement?

(IV) What approaches should be built for lasting peace agreements?

These questions form the backdrop to the discussions conducted through this research. The analysis is based on household survey data and focus groups collected in Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

Main Results

1. The relationship between the factors of sustainability of peace agreements and the consideration of the degree of inclusion

According to the literature, the degree of inclusivity is one of the key factors in the sustainability of peace agreements. This is consistent with our results, which show that the degree of inclusivity has a positive association with the sustainability of peace agreements, controlling for bad governance, insecurity, and political tension. In general, signed peace agreements only reflect the aspirations of politicians, rather than taking into account the aspirations of the people. In these agreements, it is mainly belligerents who achieve a share of political power. However, ethnic divides feature prominently in the three conflicts studied, which accentuates the sense of a sharp disagreement between the political parties.

2. Determinants of the failure of peace agreements

The study revealed a number of factors that influence the duration of peace agreements. Key factors in the failure of peace agreements in the three studied countries include the betrayal of the signatories; distrust of the belligerents; and the influence of external forces. Additional factors that lead to unsustainability for peace agreements are the strategic positions of the belligerents on the front, inappropriate negotiations, improvisation and haste in signing peace agreements, and a lack of clarity in agreements signed.

3. Endogenous practices in conflict management and sustainability of peace agreements

If those factors identified above contribute to the failure of peace agreements, what factors promote the sustainability of peace agreements? The three case studies pointed out several key variables, including the consideration of social and economic aspirations in the negotiation process, the existence of a negotiating framework, complete knowledge of the nature of problems, and the involvement of national teams in negotiating peace agreements. The ability of the involved parties to negotiate and the involvement of women in peace agreements, in contrast, only weakly influenced the sustainability of the agreements.

Key Findings for Côte d'Ivoire:

Important factors contributing to the sustainability of peace agreements included:

1. The inclusion of social aspirations: The peace negotiations in Côte d'Ivoire involved a higher degree of consideration of social and economic aspirations, which contributed to its sustainability. This inclusivity was due to several features of the negotiation structure, including the national reconciliation forum, the conclave of Linas-Marcoussis, and the forum of religious denominations and organization of kings and traditional leaders.
2. The existence of a negotiating framework: Having a defined framework for negotiation helped to create a climate conducive to political and social dialogue, which should promote lasting agreements, once signed.
3. Excellent knowledge of problems: The forum of religious denominations and the association of traditional kings and chiefs of Côte d'Ivoire favorably influenced the inclusion of knowledge about the core issues to be addressed by the negotiations encouraging and providing a nuanced understanding of the issues.
4. Nationals involved in negotiating teams: The endogenous activities helped facilitate better resolutions of the negotiations, and thus contributed to the sustainability of the peace agreement.

Key Findings for Sierra Leone:

In the search for peace, local actors have played crucial roles in their communities by making use of methods from endogenous practices conflict management. The activities of the Inter-religious Council of the Organizations of Civil Society and Women's Groups can be cited for this.

The "Bintumani" National Consultative Conferences and the large gatherings in favor of peace were of the keys reconciliation, healing hearts, and forgiveness. These activities allowed the warring parties to express their grievances and propose actions for sustainable peace in Sierra Leone.

Key Findings for Liberia:

Women's organizations and UN agencies have played a vital role in stabilizing the peace agreements that ended Liberia's civil war. Unlike in Côte d'Ivoire, women's organizations in Liberia have contributed to assist child soldiers and rape victims. The peculiarity of the fragility of the Liberian conflict peace agreements is related to the country's sociological context. Indeed, the political crisis has highlighted the very high degree of socio-cultural heterogeneity in Liberia. There is no deep sense of belonging to a nation that starts from the history of the creation of Liberia.

Key Recommendations

Before the signing of the peace agreements, focus on:

1. The inclusion in the first negotiations of peace agreements.

During the implementation of the agreement, focus on:

1. The urgent establishment of political institutions that can provide strong and credible governance;
2. Respect for fundamental human rights;
3. The need to raise awareness throughout society on the content of the agreements and the methodology adopted.
   The choice of a consensus facilitator and integration of reconstruction, DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration), and reconciliation in United Nations centers.

During the post-implementation period, focus on:

1. The resolution of political disputes that could create political instability.
2. Creating constitutional texts that reflect the popular will and address necessary issues of inclusion and inequality.
3. Developing robust responses to the issues of citizenship and governance at the heart of some of the conflicts analyzed.

Dr. Ibrahim Diarra is the Project Coordinator, Mr. Mamadou Gbongue is the Principal Researcher, and Mr. Abdoulaye Kouma is the Research Associate for this project. This research project was carried out by the Centre Ivoirien de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (CIRES).