Africa Up Close

This blog was originally posted on NewSecurityBeat, a blog of the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center.

When Mwanahamisi Abdallah’s mother announced plans to marry her off to a stranger, the 14-year-old Tanzanian girl burst into tears. She had no desire to marry—especially after learning the man already had three wives. Remembering advice from a teacher, she phoned authorities to intervene. They blocked the wedding and eventually delivered Mwanahamisi from her village in southeastern Lindi region to a girls’ shelter in Dar es Salaam.

Nigeria is widely, and perhaps rightly, perceived as a conflict-prone country. In recent times, ongoing violent conflicts centered around the Boko Haram insurgency and farmer/herder tensions have dominated peacebuilding conversations. Even more recently, Nigeria has experienced the EndSARS protest and the civil disturbances that have followed. This latest conflict could nonetheless yield important lessons on crisis mismanagement, especially along the trajectory between peace and violence.

Elections in Africa often bring fear and anxiety, and some have resulted in protracted violent conflicts. Elections in 2020 come with additional threats, some beyond the control of the nations involved. The electoral processes in 2020—which will have taken place in a dozen African countries by the end of the year—are being conducted in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with its attendant economic slowdown. More dangerously, the countries in the Sahel region— Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—and neighboring countries in coastal West Africa—Ghana, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire—are seriously threatened by violent extremism. 2020 is testing the resilience of African governance institutions in the midst of old and emerging threats. On the one hand, nations administering elections are expected to perform beyond the normal to be able to contain the barrage of threats. On the other hand, over-concentration on elections may lead governments to neglect important policy measures, which could, in turn, devastate national economies by, for example, diverting resources needed for security and health.

The ranks of journalists covering conflicts and dangerous assignments in Nigeria may be depleted due to a lack of care from the society and media employers. This trend applies in other African countries and is likely to deprive the continent of necessary information that could enhance peacebuilding and nourish the growth of democracy. In the last three decades, there has been a steady escalation globally in the number of journalists jailed, killed, or maimed while covering local wars and violent civil conflicts—more so than during earlier international conflicts that featured high mortality rates among media correspondents in the Cold War decades. Between 1992-2020, about 1,378 journalists have been killed in different countries across the world, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. In essence, there is a clear shift now from the previous assumption that more journalists tend to be killed while covering foreign wars rather than during national crises. Nowadays, more journalists are falling victim to murder and assassination by criminal gangs, as well as to infection by dangerous disease while reporting on regions affected by Ebola, SARs, and other deadly illnesses. According to global data, in 2019, 64 journalists were missing while 246 were imprisoned. So far in 2020, 26 journalists and media staff worldwide have died in the line of duty.

Ethiopia is battling with the multi-dimensional effects of COVID-19 amidst a fragile political transition that began in March 2018. Like many African states, Ethiopia’s healthcare system is quite poor despite improvements in recent decades. The country was not by any means ready and able to tackle COVID-19 by itself when the pandemic broke out across the world. So far in Ethiopia, more than a thousand people have died of the 65,000-plus who have been infected with the virus. However, without the government’s vigorous diplomatic efforts, the number of active COVID-19 cases in Ethiopia would be far higher. Ethiopia is not the only beneficiary of its COVID diplomacy, which has made a small but significant contribution to the overall fight against the spread of the virus in Africa.

Whether you are in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, or Ethiopia, there is an urgent need for dialogue to bridge differences and prevent further societal violence. In South Africa, successful negotiations between liberation movements and the National Party that led to the first democratic government in 1994 did not, unfortunately, also lead to broad acceptance of dialogue and negotiation as a usual practice to bridge social and political differences.

After Abiy Ahmed was sworn-in as Ethiopia’s prime minister (PM) in April 2018, his government engaged in normalization talks with Eritrea. In July 2018, the two countries signed a historic agreement that ended two decades of “no peace and no war.” Following this, people-to-people relations resumed, embassies reopened, air flights restarted between Addis Ababa and Asmara, international telecommunication was fixed, and, most notably, border crossings reopened, allowing for free movement of people in both directions. These achievements helped Prime Minister Abiy garner huge popular support within and outside of Ethiopia, and contributed to his being awarded the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize.

The provenance of the coronavirus pandemic (the COVID-19 virus) has been traced to Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei Province. To China’s rivals and detractors, this fact is an effective tool in their efforts to undermine China’s growing global influence and its expectations of being a leader in providing public goods and combating disease. The COVID-19 virus presents the world’s most threatening health crisis in more than a century. Due to the rapid spread and severity of the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, in March the World Health Organization characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is hitting African countries recently emerging from violent conflicts, already struggling with violent conflicts, or transitioning from conflict to peace. The initial impact of COVID-19 in these countries is on health and the economy. As a result, response measures have significant socio-economic impact that may hinder these countries’ attainment of the UN Strategic Development Goals on poverty, food security, inequality, and peace.

The year 2020 will live in infamy as the global economy reels under the deadly COVID-19 pandemic that has seriously impacted lives, jobs, and trade. The virus has so far claimed 582,125 lives and infected more than thirteen million people globally. African countries are already challenged in stemming the spread of the virus, but the task is even more complicated for countries that are constitutionally mandated to hold elections during this unprecedented time. COVID-19 mitigation measures during elections have massive implications for peace and security in these countries, as the measures have the potential to upend the electoral process, lead to bans on campaigning, and abuse by incumbents.