Africa Up Close

The Lake Chad Basin humanitarian crisis has caused huge population displacement and left hundreds of thousands of children trapped behind conflict lines. Photo courtesy of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Flickr Commons.

Climate change and its impact on conflict has gained prominent attention in recent global security discourse. Although there is no mono-causal correlation between climate change and conflict, the impact of environmental change on population displacement and regional conflict cannot be underestimated. In the case of the Lake Chad Basin, decades of depletion of the lake due to climate variabilities have largely contributed to fueling insecurity in riparian communities whose livelihoods depend on the lake. In the 1960s, Lake Chad had an area of more than 26,000km. However, it had shrunk to less than 1,500 km by 1997, and dwindled further to 1,350 km by 2014. Agriculture is the mainstay of the local economy of communities across the Lake Chad Basin, but the drastic depletion of the region’s water has affected crop, livestock, and fish production. The impact of this is evident in the rise of environmental migration, population displacement, poverty, and food insecurity within the region’s communities. This has heightened competition over resources such as water, land, and food, resulting in tension, conflict and intercommunal violence. Beyond this, terrorist groups, especially Boko Haram and the Islamic State West African Province, are exploiting these fault lines to recruit vulnerable youth and strengthen their insurgencies in communities across the countries of the Lake Chad Basin.

Downtown Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Photo courtesy of the UK Department for International Development via Flickr Creative Commons.

Ethiopia, with 110 million people, is scheduled to hold a national election in 2020. This follows a pivotal year for Ethiopia, which in 2018 began a political transition marked by new dynamics in the relationship between the government and the people, including the opposition, private sector, and civil society. With the opening of the political space and the return of several opposition political parties and armed groups, the Ethiopian political landscape has witnessed dramatic changes over the last one-and-a-half years.

Voters outside of polling stations during the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2018 general elections. Photo courtesy of MONUSCO via Flickr Commons.

The “Sun City Inter-Congolese Dialogue”—the peace process that, in 2003, ended five years of civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—identified the legitimacy crisis of the country’s leaders as a key driver of the conflict.[i] Governance legitimacy, which is critical for peace and stability in the fragile DRC, is again in question following the election of December 30, 2018 that many observers saw as deeply flawed and troubling.

A farmer waters his mango farm in Boromo, Burkina Faso. Photo courtesy of CIFOR via Flickr Creative Commons.

Since the coming into force of the Paris Agreement in 2016, 50 of Africa’s 54 countries have signed and ratified it, while the remaining four countries have only signed it (Angola, Eritrea, Libya, and South Sudan). Scientifically, it is common knowledge that Africa is the continent most vulnerable to climate change. Non-climatic factors—such as economic strength, access to technology, and social policies—are increasingly influencing African countries’ vulnerability. Moreover, some parts of the continent are exposed to climate change more severely than others, and their level of resilience and adaptability differ. For instance, the probability of drought is higher in Southern Africa, desertification is a threat for West Africa, and East Africa faces more flooding. Despite the heterogeneous consequences, three areas of climate impact are critical for most African countries: water stress, food security, and human health. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort at the continental level to streamline and coordinate climate policies and actions, improve weather-related information-gathering, and address chronic funding shortfalls for climate change adaptation.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and U.S. President Donald Trump alongside First Lady Margaret Kenyatta and First Lady Melania Trump during a visit at the White House. Photo courtesy of The White House via Flickr Creative Commons.

Hardly had South African President Cyril Ramaphosa settled into his chairmanship of the African Union (AU) and his compatriot, Wamkele Mene, assumed leadership as Secretary-General (SG) of the fledgling and still largely aspirational African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement before both began to face a baptism by fire in the form of the United States’ and Kenya’s intent to pursue their own bilateral free trade agreement—a formidable challenge to the AfCFTA. How Ramaphosa as 2020 AU Chair and Mene as AfCFTA’s first SG confront this bilateralist challenge to continental trade integration will determine much about the AfCFTA’s future as Africa’s flagship for achieving global economic power status within the world’s fast-shifting geo-economic/strategic landscape.

Migrants off the coast of Lampedusa, Italy. Photo courtesy of Vito Manzari via Flickr Creative Commons.

In 2014, a significant number of refugees began pouring into the European Union (EU), fleeing from Africa and the Middle East to escape political conflict, war, famine, and lack of economic opportunity. Many of these refugees entered Italy and Greece by land and sea. Reaching its peak in 2015, the crisis generated over one million migrants in that year alone. Europe’s handling of the crisis was aggravated by various misconceptions, misguided policies, and internal politics. Although the crisis has now abated somewhat, the next large-scale displacement of people is inevitable given global political, economic, and climate challenges. Yet lessons learned from the most recent European migration crisis could help to mitigate the next such crisis.

 A Nigerian citizen using his iPhone to connect with the internet. Photo courtesy of ARipstra (WMF) via Wikimedia Commons. 

Social media has emerged as an indispensable tool for accelerated globalization and development in the 21st century. It has created spaces for more interconnectedness among individuals and states. Like other regions in the world, in West Africa, increased internet penetration, mobile services, laptops, and other technological gadgets, have increased interactions and amplified people’s voices in the governance landscape. While social media has become an instrument for social, political, and economic development, it also provides an avenue for potential threats to regional security. Social media has become a channel for terrorist groups and transnational criminal networks to scale-up their operations in the region. However, key stakeholders from within the states and regional security apparatuses have paid little attention to social media threats and their impact on regional stability, focusing only on traditional military response strategies. This missing link continues to undermine the effectiveness of resilience strategies to mitigate threats to security in the region.

South Africa’s then Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, and Turkey’s then Prime Minister Erdogan, signed the South Africa-Turkey Bi-National Commission in 2012. Photo courtesy of the Government of South Africa via Flickr Commons.  

Turkey is getting ready to hold its third Turkey-Africa Summit, probably this April, in the framework of its eye-catching Africa partnership policy. Launched in the early 2000s, this policy is widely considered successful given Turkey’s prior near-absence from the continent for almost a century. However, two major dynamics negatively impact this engagement. First is Turkey’s increasing involvement in the Middle East’s conflicts, starting from 2011. And second is the internal rift between the Turkish government and the socio-religious movement led by Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim cleric who has lived in self-imposed exile in the U.S. since 1999, and Ankara’s designation of the Gulen Movement as a “terrorist organization”[1] in 2016. These major developments have considerably impacted Turkey’s agenda and priorities vis-à-vis Africa.

Before making an assessment of the fallout of these issues on Turkey-Africa relations, it would be appropriate to begin with brief historical background.

A UN soldier during a MONUSCO-FARDC operation against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in Beni, a city in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Photo courtesy of Sylvain Liechti for MONUSCO via Flickr Commons. 

The Beni people are demanding the departure of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). Since October 2014 to this day, close to 6 years, the civilian population of Beni in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been the victim of repeated atrocious massacres that the Congolese army and the United Nations troops are struggling to stop. This situation has caused revolts among the people who accuse the Congolese army and United Nations troops of complicity in the massacres.

President Kagame leading a discussion during the 9th National Dialogue at Parliament. Photo courtesy of the Government of Rwanda via Flickr Commons. 

Young techies are a growing sight on the streets of Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, where not long ago volunteers from an alphabet soup of development organizations once dominated. Indeed, the country’s growth story borders on the miraculous. Since the 1994 genocide, which led to an estimated 800,000 deaths and decimation of its national infrastructure, the Rwandan economy has grown exponentially.