Rethinking the Relationship among Youth Unemployment, Structural Violence and Migration in the Horn of Africa

Somali refugees at Kharaz Refugee Camp in Yemen. Photo courtesy of European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations department via Flickr Commons. 

The rise of youth (15-to-24-year-olds) unemployment is one of the critical socio-economic and political problems facing Africa in general, and the Horn of Africa (HoA)[1] in particular. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO) report, youth unemployment is still a serious concern in this part of Africa despite the World Bank (WB) report that most countries in the HoA achieved remarkable economic growth in 2016.  The table below provides a snapshot of the extent of youth unemployment in the region vis-à-vis economic growth.
Country
           Youth unemployment
GDP growth

2014
2015
2016
2017
2016
Djibouti
Not available
Not available
Not available
Not available
Not available
Eritrea
11.6%
11.9%
12.1%
12.2%
Not available
Ethiopia
7.0%
7.4%
8.1%
8.0%
7.6%
Kenya
23.9%
22.8%
22.2%
21.8%
5.8%
Somalia
11.3%
11.2%
11.1%
11.0%
Not available
South Sudan
Not available
Not available
Not available
Not available
Not available
Sudan
21.5%
22.2%
22.4%
22.7%
4.7%
Uganda
3.3%
3.7%
4.0%
4.2%
4.6%

According to the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, youth unemployment in this region is a widely recognized driver of displacement, migration, and violent extremism. Many youth are vulnerable to violence from opposing groups, mainly pro-government and rebel armed groups, in their respective countries. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Bank also reported of child recruitment into militia and armed groups, such as in Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and Somalia. As a result, unemployed youth are not only victims but also active participants of socio-political instability in the region.

The Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat (RMMS) stressed that displacement dynamics in the region are dominated by the South Sudan crisis — as of September 24, 2017, there were 2,073,105 South Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers in the HoA. The RMMS also highlighted that the situation has been regarded as the world's fastest growing refugee crisis and has propelled Uganda to be the largest refugee hosting country in the region and the continent, hosting 1,021,903 refugees, followed by Sudan (461,250) and Ethiopia (405,405). Further, the Secretariat mentioned that as of August 2017, there were about 3.5 million refugees and asylum seekers and 4.82 million Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs) within the region. According to the Mo Ibrahim Foundation Forum report, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya are in the global top ten countries hosting the greatest numbers of refugees, mainly from Somalia, South Sudan and Eritrea.
According to the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, youth unemployment in this region is a widely recognized driver of displacement, migration, and violent extremism. Many youth are vulnerable to violence from opposing groups, mainly pro-government and rebel armed groups, in their respective countries. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Bank also reported of child recruitment into militia and armed groups, such as in Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and Somalia. As a result, unemployed youth are not only victims but also active participants of socio-political instability in the region.

Complex dynamics associated with youth, including lack of employment opportunities, conflict, drought, and economics, continue to affect mixed migration flows within the region and have caused a large number of youth migration to Europe and Arab Countries. Many migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees continue face significant risks of harm, ranging from abduction, physical abuse, and death on land and at sea. Apart from the Middle East and Europe crossing through Mediterranean and Red Sea routes, youth migrants and asylum seekers from the HoA continue to travel southwards from the region towards South Africa. Currently, it is estimated that the number of Somali and Ethiopian migrants, primarily youth are entering South Africa approximately 13,400-14,050 persons every year.  Many of the migrants also continue to be at risk for detention and deportation.

Youth unemployment is also an important factor in radicalization. For instance, in Kenya, one of the key drivers of radicalization is the socio-economic depravity faced by young people in the country, making them vulnerable to recruitment by radical groups, mainly Al-Shabaab. According to UNDP, between 2011 and 2015 alone, there have been over 200 attacks linked to Al-Shabaab. The attackers target night clubs, markets, bus stops, and places of worship, killing innocent people and instilling a sense of fear and insecurity, and exacerbating inter-religious tensions. This terrorist group has successfully built a clandestine support network, spreading from the northeast of the country to the capital Nairobi, and the Indian Ocean coast and beyond - enabling them to easily recruit vulnerable groups.

Vulnerable youth often belong to specific social groups that have had a long history of marginalization such as the ethnic Somalis residing in the north-western region of Kenya. A 2011 UN report suggested that non-Somali Kenyans also played a particularly substantial and active role within Al-Shabaab. Since 1993, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda have faced terrorist attacks by Al-Shabaab and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) operating in Uganda and South Sudan. According to the 2016 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), HoA registered the highest average level of terrorism in 2015, mainly due to high terrorism scores in Somalia, Sudan, and Kenya.

The majority of youth in the HoA have not received attention from their respective governments, as most of the governments face issues of governance and corruption. For instance, the 2015 Ibrahim Index of Governance (IIAG) reported that the region has hosted the worst performing countries on governance in Africa, with Ethiopia 31st, Djibouti 35th, Eritrea 50th, Sudan 51st, South Sudan 53rd and Somalia 54th.  The 2016 Transparency International reports depicted that Somalia (176th), Sudan (170th), South Sudan (175th) and Eritrea (164th) were the most corrupt nations in the world; while Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia were ranked 151st, 145th, 123rd, and 108th respectively. Thus, to alleviate the problem of governance and corruption, a concerted and effective government combined withnon-government institutions should take action at all levels in building legitimate, inclusive, strong, credible, transparent, and accountable institutions that youth can trust.

Although the African Youth Charter (AYC) was endorsed by the African Union Heads of States and Governments in 2006, and provides a strategic framework for African States to empower and enhance the youth's role at all levels, they have shortfalls in terms of implementation. These shortfalls have an implication of denying a legal basis for ensuring youth presence, and participation in government structures. Further, it implies a failure to guarantee the empowerment of youth in key strategic areas, such as sustainable livelihoods, youth employment, peace and security, and law enforcement. Work needs to be done by the member countries to domesticate and implement the principles enshrined in AYC, so that the youth in the region can play their inevitable roles in sustainable local, national and continental development.

In a nutshell, if the energy and ambition of Africa's youth continue to be wasted, they are not only burdens, but also, they could become serious destabilizing forces in the region. Thus, this huge and immediate challenge requires committed leadership and robust governance if the region is to enable its young people to build a prosperous and peaceful future. Moreover, the youth unemployment problem must be adequately prioritized as a key component of poverty alleviation efforts in national and global policy making. In other words, governments of each country in the region, donor institutions (such as WB, IMF), and development partners (EU, the US, Japan, China, India) should customize their policies to provide more employment opportunities for youth.

[1] The HoA is officially defined as the eight-member states of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), namely: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. The region is one of the most volatile and conflict-ridden areas on the African continent.

Dr. Getachew Zeru is a professor at the Institute of African Governance and Development at Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa. He was a former Southern Voices Scholar Network for Peacebuilding in Spring 2015.