South Sudan: Can a Fragile Unity Government Guarantee Peace and Security?

[caption id="attachment_10861" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Residents of Malakal, South Sudan protest and demand accountability. Photo by OCHA/Charlotte Cans, via Flickr. Creative Commons.[/caption]

In August 2015, under the auspices of IGAD Plus,1 President Salva Kiir and former rebel leader Riek Machar signed a peace deal for the formation of the transitional national unity government to end more than two years of devastating civil war. Following the deal, Machar, who is also leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), returned to Juba in April 2016 and was sworn in as First Vice President, forging a unity government with President Kiir. In accordance with the transitional security arrangements, which came into effect in April, the two rival armies of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and the SPLA-IO have been stationed in Juba to co-exist and hold joint patrols, providing security and protection in the capital. However, the political leadership has been unable to deal with serious structural issues in the peace agreements and the security situation has deteriorated rapidly since June 2016.

The Deteriorating Security Situation

The implementation of the peace deal has faced several challenges, the most important of which are non-cooperation between the two forces in Juba and non-implementation of the security arrangements across the country. Despite the August 2015 peace agreement that formally ended the war, conflict and instability have been endemic across the country. Conflict has now spread to previously unaffected areas in the Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr-El-Ghazal regions. Since the beginning of July 2016, fighting in Juba between rival troops loyal to the President and the First Vice President has alarmed many and threatened to disrupt the already fragile peace process. The recent fighting in the capital has killed at least 250 military personnel and 33 civilians. Two Chinese UN peacekeepers have been killed, with a number of other peacekeepers injured. A UN-guarded camp in Juba was shelled, killing and wounding civilians. There are also reports of hundreds of South Sudanese crossing into neighboring Uganda. Alarmed by the developments, foreign governments including the United States, Japan, and Uganda cautioned their nationals to leave the country or stay indoors.

Beyond Juba, the resurgence of violence in the towns of Wau, Raja, and Bentiu also speaks to the dramatic deterioration of the security situation across the country. For instance, the fighting between armed groups loyal to Ali Tamin Fatan2 and government forces in June 2016 resulted in the deaths of at least 40 people, with up to 35,000 fleeing their homes. There was also deadly fighting between a group of unknown gunmen and the SPLA in Raja town in June 16 2016, resulting in the killing of several SPLA soldiers and officers. It was not the SPLA-IO, but rather the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – a Sudanese rebel group from Darfur based near Raja, inside South Sudan – that helped the government forces in fighting the gunmen. That same month, forces loyal to the President clashed with forces affiliated to the First Vice President in Central Equatoria state, south of Juba, leaving at least 21 soldiers dead and dozen others wounded on both sides.

Looking Forward

The implementation of the peace deal is still lagging due to disagreements between the two signatories on various controversial issues. For instance, there is still disagreement on President Kiir's plan to restructure the country's 10 states into 28. Differences also arise on the issue of the selection of the speaker of the transitional national legislative assembly. Ignoring a hybrid court, one of a key provision of a peace accord, the President and First Vice President demanded the creation of a national truth and reconciliation commission similar to South Africa's and Northern Ireland's, which would rule out punitive action for past injustices. Even Festus Mogae, the former president of Botswana who heads the international ceasefire monitoring team, confirmed that good faith progress toward implementing the August 2015 peace accord has not materialized.

The deteriorating security situation and the slow implementation of reforms and agreements are evidence of President Kiir and Vice President Machar's lack of serious commitment to the peace process they signed. Given the failure of South Sudan's political leadership, the international community, including the United Nations and African Union, should take urgent action to prevent the country from returning to full-scale civil war. They must press their non-partisan member states to contribute additional peacekeepers, with a particular focus on ending the violence in the capital. IGAD Plus should also press the two sides to move more swiftly to implement the peace pact, exercising self-control to ensure a permanent ceasefire and swiftly redeploying rival combatants away from Juba. It should also press the two parties to immediately start reconciliation by facilitating a national peace conference that incorporates key representatives from all sectors of society and relevant stakeholders including the militaries. Moreover, the United States and China should press the UN Security Council to institute an immediate arms embargo against South Sudan.

Getachew Zeru Gebrekidan, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor in Peace and Security Studies at the Federal Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy. He was previously a Southern Voices Network Scholar with the Wilson Center Africa Program from May to August 2015 and a subject matter expert for E-learning: Conflict Management for Local Government Officials in the Horn of Africa at the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) of Addis Ababa University.

1: IGAD Plus includes the member states of IGAD — an East African regional economic community — as well as major international partners including the United States, UK, Norway, AU, EU, UN, and China.

2: Ali Tamin Fatan, a militia leader, intends to carve out an Islamist state by controlling territory further west near the border with Central African Republic. He is supported by members of the Lord's Resistance Army.