The Straw That Will Break ANC's Back

The veteran journalist and political commentator Allister Sparks discusses the future of
South African politics, including the consequences of the potential reappointment of Jacob Zuma as leader of the ANC and Helen Zille's call for the establishment of a new opposition party. Continue reading for the full article published in the Cape Times on October 10, 2012.

The Straw That Will Break ANC's Back
By Allister Sparks 

Two things have occurred over the past fortnight that could profoundly influence the course of events in this country. The first is the mounting evidence that President Jacob Zuma is going to be reappointed leader of the ANC in December; the second is DA leader Helen Zille's call for the formation of a new opposition party. It is the interaction of these two events, if they occur, that I find interesting because that could transform our entire political landscape. I have in fact speculated about both at different times over the past two years, but now they are part of the public debate and could conceivably come about in the relatively near future.

The near certainty of Zuma's reappointment at Mangaung is no surprise, despite the recent opinion polls showing that the majority of urban black people - especially the youth, who are the constituency of the future - would rather see Kgalema Motlanthe become leader. The fact is, as we saw at the Cosatu national conference last month, the ruling alliance is so riven with factionalism that the widespread expectation is that come the crunch, senior ANC members will arrange a managed reappointment rather than risk a disruptive fight on the conference floor. That is why the gaping rift between affiliate unions wanting to dump Zwelinzima Vavi as general secretary, while others wanted to keep him, was papered over and the whole executive simply re-elected en bloc - and why Vavi himself, who everyone knows would like to replace Zuma with Motlanthe, advised the ANC to do likewise at Mangaung.

So Zuma it will almost certainly be. Unfortunately. For to be frank, Zuma's first term as president has been a disaster. Watching the decline of our brave new SA during his three and a half years at the helm has been heartbreaking. He has shown himself to be a flawed personality and an inept leader. On his watch the ANC has sunk from being an iconic liberation movement admired the world over to a faction-riven shadow of its former self, while his government has declined into an incompetent, ideologically confused and morally corrupt kleptocracy.

Zuma has presided over a widening wealth gap, a dysfunctional education system, a chronic shortage of skills, a potentially explosive level of unemployment, a disintegrating public-health system, across-the-board service delivery failures, a confused foreign police, and a declining national economy crippled by a negative attitude towards the private sector to the point where a major rating agency has now downgraded it together with some of our most crucial parastatals.

Worst of all, Zuma has revealed an alarming misconception of the meaning of democracy, as well as an inadequate understanding of, or even respect for, the constitution he is sworn to uphold. He has said on several occasions that the constitution should not be able to frustrate the will of the majority in Parliament, which of course is precisely what a democratic constitution must do if the government violates the founding law of the country. Then in a condescending lecture to the young leader of the opposition in Parliament, Lindiwe Mazibuko - addressing her as "young girl" and speaking to her as one would to a child - he presented the astonishing concept that democracy means a majority has greater rights than a minority. Can the president of a country as significant as SA really be ignorant of the fact that the very essence of democracy is that all have equal rights? Yet this manifestly inadequate man is about to be given a second term. If that happens, Zuma will be president of SA for the next seven years, twice as long as we have already had him. I doubt whether the ANC could survive that.

This is what makes Zille's call for the building of a new opposition party, what she calls a coming together of all those concerned about the alarming drift in our national affairs, so timely. It was much more than a commercial for her own DA. It was a bold and considered analysis of the critical state of the nation and the inability of the present line-up of political parties to turn things around. As she put it, all the key parties have deeply embedded brand names, rooted to a degree in identity, which keeps apart millions of people who really belong together.

She identified two broad political groupings - those committed to non-racialism (on the basis of reconciliation and redress, as she put it), constitutionalism and a market-driven economy, and those who believe in racial mobilisation, power abuse and state control on the other. "The ANC colossus stands in the middle," she said, "pulled in both directions but unable to move either way without falling apart."

On a more specific note, Zille referred to the diagnosis of the country's economic problems presented by the National Planning Commission and its proposals for dealing with them, which she said closely resembled her own party's economic programme but which stood little chance of being implemented because to do so would tear the ANC apart.

Essentially, what Zille is doing is reaching across party lines with a call for a new and more logical political line-up. She is doing so in the belief that the conflicts, contradictions and rivalries within the ANC must lead it at some point to "implode".
Some analysts dismiss this as wishful thinking on the part of government critics.
Maybe so, but I have come to the view that another seven years of a Zuma presidency is more than the ANC can endure. He is just too tainted, too inadequate and too unpopular.

To cite one example, can Planning Minister Trevor Manuel sit out another seven years as a wallflower in the Presidency, wasting what should be the peak years of an illustrious career, smouldering with frustration while his fine National Development Plan gathers dust? He surely can't go back to his old job as finance minister, or accept any lesser one in the cabinet. So what's left? Overseas maybe, but he has probably missed the bus at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund now that the SA economy has lost its lustre. The best offer may be something like ambassador in Ouagadougou.

And what about Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, another who must be hugely frustrated watching all the wasted expenditure on pet personal projects like Nkandla?
And Motlanthe himself, whose new biography makes his own criticisms of Zuma's stewardship clear and who knows most South Africans would prefer him at the top?
After a brief spell as president himself, will the prospect of 10 years as bridesmaid to a lesser man seem appealing? There are plenty more who will not relish another seven years under Zuma. I sense that the 2014 election will turn out to be a catalytic event. 

The Zuma-led ANC is likely to perform poorly, its percentage of the vote possibly sinking into the alarming 50s, giving an indication of its longer-term prospects.
Yes, the ANC may have strong bonds of history and identity, but there is nothing quite like the sense that a ship is sinking to see rats and politicians jump.

Sparks is a veteran journalist and political commentator.